1、We are in a traditional housing recession
Lead analyst at Housing Wire said we are in a traditional housing recession, now is repeat of 2018 housing cooling period, but not the repeat of 2008 GFC, one reason is lack of supply: active listing 870k units, far < 2M units active listings typically on market
2、These cities have the greatest market risk
Redfin CEO sees Tampa, LV, Denver, Boise, San Antonio, New Orlean, Riverside markets are most at risk, due to pressure from forced selling by institutional buyers ie iBuyer which can low price quickly, also sees higher % of ARM mortgages in home sales
3、The odd of economy and housing fall into severe downturn increased
Per rating agency Fitch, the odd of economy and housing fall into severe downturn increased, housing markets ie Coeur D’Alene, Phoenix, LV, Co Spring, Boise could see price drop of up to 15-20% in that situation, but their base case (most likely) scenario is a moderate pullback, not a price collapse
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