1、Yardi institutional investors survey showed the most prefer sectors of CRE are multifam (67%), industrial, data center and Life science/medical, self storage. The bottom 5 are office, student housing, retails, mobile homes and hotel with only 6.2% favorable
2、20% of home sellers dropped asking price in Aug, vs 11% in 8/2021, median price dropped 3% MTM to $435k per Realtor.com
3、CBRE Q2 2022 state of BA multifam market webinar:
Debt market:
1. Agency/life companies loans are up
2. Yield spreads in high 200s by end of 2023, capital cost continues to rise
3. CBRE believes 10 year T be range bounded between 2.75-3.25% in seeking a bottom, SOFR forward curves flatten around 2.5-3% for LT future
BA Housing market:
1. 9%YOY rent grow in 2022, vacancy in Q2 3.6% < 4.3% typical for BA
SF vacancy up slightly to 4.2%
2. Project rent growth of 5% for next 3 years
3. Supply is more robust for US than BA locally, vacancy up 70bps for US in Q2
4. Rent growth pace is fastest in Southbay submarket
5. Cap rate is flattening 4.25%, not seeing the sub 3% cap deals like before
Cap expansion of 25-50bps by end of 2022 is expected
6. Huge new job creation vs housing unit imbalance to keep housing supply low in BA:
670k new jobs created since 2010 in BA, vs 226k housing permits and 105k unit built during that period, a ratio of 5:1
(personally, I don’t view this such out of wrack 5:1 ratio being a good thing, in short term will be good news to keep housing/rent price high, but in long term I believe 5:1 ratio is not healthy for region’s competitiveness, a double edge )
4、Redfin CEO said the following markets top his list of home contract cancellations, national avg at 16%, leaders are FL submarkets, LV, New Orleans, LA and San Antonio, all with > 25% cancellation rate
5、CoreLogic July data for bayarea showing median home price fell 6% to $1.28M, San Mateo and SF high price areas had the most drops of 8-9%, Santa Clara slide 7%, Alameda declined 5%, Contra Costa even less drop
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