1、Between June 2022 and June 2023, CoreLogic predicts U.S. home prices are poised to rise another 4.3%. But that’s nationally. Regionally, some markets are at high risk of falling prices.

Among the 392 regional housing markets it looked at, CoreLogic found 125 markets have a greater than 50% chance of seeing local home prices decline over the next 12 months. In July, CoreLogic found 98 markets had a greater than 50% chance of a home price decline over the next 12 months. In June, 45 markets were at-risk. In May, just 26 markets fell into that camp.

2、On a year-over-year basis, existing home sales and new home sales are down 20.2% and 29.6%, respectively. That’s the sharpest housing activity contraction since 2006.

“Probability of home price decline continues to intensify as mortgage rates hit a new high in June and housing demand took a considerable dip,” Selma Hepp, deputy chief economist at CoreLogic, tells Fortune.

“Price decline risk remains concentrated in regions that saw exceedingly high home price growth over the last two years, but not the same level of population and income growth, and areas that are historically more sensitive to increase in mortgage rates and recession signals.”

3、More Sellers Retreat Amid Falling Prices, Volatile Mortgage Rates

New listings of homes for sale fell 15% in the four weeks ending August 21, the biggest annual decline since the start of the pandemic, as there were fewer sellers and buyers in the market due to rising mortgage rates and economic uncertainty.  As a result, the supply of for-sale homes fell 0.6% from the previous four-week period. Though that’s a slight decline, it’s only the second time total supply has dropped from the prior four-week period since February; the first time was last week. The dearth of homeowners putting their homes up for sale is partly a reaction to reduced demand and falling prices.

Those who are listing their homes are starting to price in line with lower demand. The median asking price of newly listed homes dropped 5% from the record high set in May, and sale prices dropped 6% from the record high set in June. The share of for-sale homes with a price drop leveled off after rising throughout the spring and early summer.

4、Nearly 70% of homes for sale in Boise, ID, had a price drop in July, the highest share of the 97 metros in this analysis. Next come Denver, where 58% of homes for sale had a price drop, Salt Lake City (56.4%) and Tacoma, WA (54.8%). Those four metros also topped the list in June, and Boise, Salt Lake City and Tacoma were also among the 10 metros with the biggest upticks in their price-drop rates from a year earlier.

Tampa, FL (52.1%), Sacramento, CA (52%), Indianapolis (51.4%), Phoenix (50.1%), San Diego (49.7%) and Portland, OR (48.3%) round out the top 10. More than half of those metros–Boise, Denver, Tacoma, Sacramento, Phoenix, San Diego and Portland–are among the 20 housing markets that cooled fastest in the first half of 2022 after attracting scores of eager homebuyers during the pandemic.

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The cities that will face the Biggest Home Value Crash are the ones where Home Price have vaulted above fundamentals the most. For instance, the Reventure Consulting Home Price Model predicts that the Charlotte Housing Market will crash by 27%. Salt Lake City will crash by 29%. And Seattle will crash by 28%. But meanwhile New York Home Prices are only projected to decline by 11%.