1. 30 year mortgage breached 7% last week for first time since 2008, higher borrowing cost pushed down mortgage application to lowest level since 1999, per MBA.
2. Legendary investor Druckenmiller believes Fed’s aggressive rate hike will result in hard landing by end of 2023 and cause worse recession than a typical one.
3. Hurricane Ian caused vast damages to central FL, could cost ranging from $70B to $258B in replacement cost per CoreLogic, making it one of the costliest nature disaster in US history, and one of the biggest concern now is prop insurance carriers leaving FL market, or seeing the premium skyrocketing.
4. Larry Summers said global market risk is building like Aug 2007 just before collapsing, is of particular concern.
5. ING chief economist said recession in US already started, 20% house price in 2023 will lead to rate cut in later 2023.
6. KKR, Invesco, Apollo, Morgan Stanley RE analysts on panel see cloudy outlook and dark days ahead for CRE and general economy, even though unlikely to repeat of 2008 GFC, but err on the side of hard landing prep.
© 2022-2025